A meaningful college basketball computer rating system must include several factors to evaluate teams. The obvious flaw of the RPI is that it rates teams based only on W/L records and schedule strengths. My system uses 31 factors including scoring margins and results against Top 50 teams. This system is purely statistical and contains no subjective input. All 347 teams are rated. Only Division I results are counted. A current Division I team changing conferences is Bryant from Independent to the Northeast Conference. A new conference has been formed - The Great West which includes Chicago St, Houston Baptist, NJIT, North Dakota, South Dakota, Texas-Pan American and Utah Valley U all former Independents. Six Independent teams reman - CS-Bakersfield, Longwood, NC-Central, Savannah St, Seattle and SIU-Edwardsville. The ratings are updated every day. Results from the previous season are not used. Commentary and Top-35 predictions will begin November 9, 2009. To view my Computer Ratings, click the link below. The best way to find this website is to type "jimlynchcollegebasketball.com" at the Yahoo or Google search engines or click on the "Lynch" link at Kenneth Massey's Comparative NCAA Basketball Ratings (beginning 12/11/2009).

In addition to team ratings, this system can be used to predict game margins. For example, Indiana (rating of 64.0) plays at Iowa (rating of 65.3). My average home court advantage is 4 points so add 4.0 to Iowa's rating which becomes 69.3. Subtract Iowa's rating (69.3) from Indiana's rating (64.0) and Iowa has a margin of 5.5 points (round off to the nearest 0.5 point) over Indiana.

To update team ratings, I use the The Sports Network for daily game scores. This is just a simple list of all the college basketball scores. It is quick to get into and is unencumbered by details of the complicated and time consuming sites such as ESPN, CBS Sports, etc. For complete records of all game results and conference standings, I use the Yahoo! Sports site. Again, this site is quick to access, uncomplicated and accurate.

There are many good college basketball rating systems today. How does my system stand up? The best way to evaluate a system is to compare predictions to the Vegas lines. Last season (2008-2009) my system was 58% vs 2,596 Vegas spreads and 59% for the NCAA Tournament spreads. An average of America's Lines site and The Sports Network (odds) areused for the Vegas spreads. My lines are rounded off to the nearest 0.5 point. Pushed games (Vegas line and the final scoring margin are identical), of course, are not counted. Spreads of teams with recent key injuries are not calculated either. To determine my spread, simply subtract the two teams' ratings and add 4 points to the home team. My record vs Vegas is listed in my Commentary section each time the site is updated beginning December 19, 2009. Spreads are only done for games involving the six major conferences: ACC, B-12, Big East, Big-10, SEC and the PAC-10.

Sports gambling is emphatically not recommended and visitors to this site are responsible for their own actions.

My Preseason Top 35 Teams (2009-2010):

1) Villanova

2) Texas

3) Kansas

4) North Carolina

5) Purdue

6) Tennessee

7) Michigan St

8) West Virginia

9) Kentucky

10) Connecticut

11) Illinois

12) Michigan

13) Duke

14) Butler

15) Maryland

16) Georgetown

17) Syracuse

18) Ohio St

19) Miss St

20) California

21) Louisville

22) Georgia Tech

23) Washington

24) Minnesota

25) Oklahoma

26) Florida

27) Clemson

28) Florida St

29) Dayton

30) South Carolina

31) Siena

32) Tulsa

33) Nothern Iowa

34) Boston College

35) Pittsburgh

 

Keys to Success - Factors that Make a Winning Program:

#1) A coach that can recruit smart, talented players and is a great strategest. If I were an AD, I would chose Sean Miller, Tony Bennett, Jay Wright or Tom Izzo.

#2) Recruit an effective, quick point guard that can penetrate, score and is a leader. This is almost as important as coaching (a glaring Longhorn deficiency).

#3) Have an inside player, say 6'9"/240lbs, who can really rebound - Izzo is a master at this.

#4) Design an offense where players are always moving - I see too many players standing around.

#5) Good free throw shooting. This is a gift and many teams (much more than you would think) lose games by not shooting free throws effectively (this is another Longhorn deficiency).

 

NBA Rosters - Players Native to Most Populous States (2010) - another favorite saying by college basketball announcers is: there are so many great and tough players coming out of New York. The only way to determine state output of quality players is to refer to current NBA rosters for players native to the most populous states. Key players are ones who have at least 13 pts/game and/or at least 7 rebs/game. Refer to the table below:

 

State	Population	TotalPlayers	Key Players	Total Players/ Million	Key Players/ Million
California	36.6 million	50	13	1.37	0.36
Texas	23.9 million	24	8	1.00	0.33
New York	19.3 million	22	6	1.14	0.31
Illinois	12.8 million	27	8	2.11	0.63
Florida	18.2 million	15	5	0.82	0.27

 

Obviously, Ilinois is the hotbead of quality high school basketball players. I have never ever heard this fact mentioned. The top guards in the country come from Illinois: Turner (Ohio St) a candidate for player of the year, Collins (Kansas), Scheyer (Duke's leading scorer), Pullen (Kansas St's leading scorer) and Randle (Cal's leading scorer).

 

This year no dominant team has emerged - like North Carolina last year. The conferences are much more evenly matched, except for the PAC-10. I have no idea who the #1 team might be. Kansas could be but looked bad losing to an under-manned Tennessee. Texas is weak at scoring guard. Kentucky doesn't look that great. Villanova under excellent coach Wright might be a possibility. The Atlantic Ten has a lot of teams vying for the top spot: Richmond, Temple, Xavier, St Louis, Dayton and Rhode Island. Some of these teams could cause some trouble in the Tournament.

 

Key Scores and Schedules

March 16, 2010

Ark-Pine Bluff 61 vs Winthrop 44 (Dayton) - (NCAA Play-in game)

Northeastern 57 at Connecticut 59 (NIT) (the Huskies barely win at home)

N Carolina St 58 at South Florida 57 (NIT) (a Big East team loses at home)

Coastal Carolina 49 at UAB 65 (NIT)

Texas Tech 87 at Seton Hall 69 (NIT) (a Big East team is trounced at home)

William & Mary 72 at North Carolina 80 (NIT)

Jackson St 67 at Miss St 81 (NIT)

Jacksonville 67 at Arizona St 66 (NIT) (how bad is the PAC-10?)

Fairfield 101 at George Mason 96 (OT) (CIT)

West Carolina 88 at Marshall 90 (CIT)

South Dakota 78 at Creighton 89 (CIT)

VCU 79 at George Washington 73 (CBI Tournament)

Indiana St 54 at St Louis 63 (CBI Tournament)

I believe it was in February that an Eastern-biased announcer made this statement: "Last year the Big East Conference was the best in college basketball history". How stupid is that. It's not true this year either - two of three favored Big East teams lost at home and one of them was blown out. Connecticut barely beat Northeastern. Remember, the Big Ten was 5-2 vs the Big East. When are they going to stop saying that crap!

March 17, 2010

WI-Green Bay 70 at Akron 66 (CBI Tournament)

Harvard 71 at Appalachian St 93 (CIT)

Weber St 62 at Cincinnati 76 (NIT) (hey!, they won one)

Illinois St 42 at Dayton 63 (NIT)

Charleston 82 at Eastern Kentucky 79 (CBI Tournament)

IUPUI 74 at Hofstra 60 (CBI Tournament)

Tulsa 74 at Kent St 75 (NIT)

Duquesne 51 at Princeton 65 (CBI Tournament)

Northwestern 64 at Rhode Island 76 (NIT)

Quinnipiac 61 at Virginia Tech 81 (NIT)

Troy 65 at Mississippi 84 (NIT)

Middle Tennessee 79 at Missouri St 87 (CIT)

Nevada 74 at Wichita St 70 (NIT)

St Johns 71 at Memphis 73 (NIT)

Colorado St 60 at Morehead St 74 (CBI Tournament)

Illinois 76 at Stony Brook 66 (NIT)

Portland 73 at Northern Colorado 81 (CIT)

Boston U 96 at Oregon St 78 (CBI Tournament) (a PAC 10 team is trounced again at home)

Pacific 86 at Loyola Marymount 76 (CIT)

March 18, 2010 - (the NCAA Tournament begins)

Florida 92 vs BYU 99 (2OT)

Old Dominion 51 vs Notre Dame 50 (are there any Big East teams left? I'm going to keep this up until the media stops saying how great they are)

Robert Morris 70 vs Villanova 73 (OT) (the Wildcats led only at the end)

Murray St 66 vs Vanderbilt 65 (look for an upset here)

North Texas 62 vs Kansas St 82

Sam Houston St 59 vs Baylor 68

St Marys 80 vs Richmond 71

UTEP 59 vs Butler 71

Northern Iowa 69 vs UNLV 66

East Tenn St 71 vs Kentucky 100

Washington 80 vs Marquette 78

Ohio U 97 vs Georgetown 83 (huge upset)

Lehigh 74 vs Kansas 90

Wake Forest 81 vs Texas 80 (OT) (two overrated teams play here)

Montana 57 vs New Mexico 62

San Diego St 59 vs Tennessee 62

Southern Miss 57 at Louisiana Tech 66 (CIT)

March 19, 2010

Morgan St 50 vs West Virginia 77

Minnesota 54 vs Xavier 65

Cornell 78 vs Temple 65

Siena 64 vs Purdue 72

Missouri 86 vs Clemson 78

Oakland 66 vs Pittsburgh 89

Wofford 49 vs Wisconsin 53

Utah St 53 vs Texas A&M 69

Gonzaga 67 vs Florida St 60

Georgia Tech 64 vs Oklahoma St 59

New Mexico St 67 vs Michigan St 70

Ark-Pine Bluff 44 vs Duke 73

Vermont 56 vs Syracuse 79

UC Santa Barbara 51 vs Ohio St 68

Houston 77 vs Maryland 89

California 77 vs Louisville 62 (man, that Big East is tough - of the 13 Big East teams in post-season, 7 of them have been eliminated)

Memphis 81 at Mississippi 90 (NIT)

March 20, 2010

St Marys 75 vs Villanova 68 (that Big East - it's the best conference in the country)

Murray St 52 vs Butler 54

Ohio U 68 vs Tennessee 83

Northern Iowa 69 vs Kansas 67 (a shocker!)

Old Dominion 68 vs Baylor 76

Washington 82 vs New Mexico 64 (the Huskies are coming on)

BYU 72 vs Kansas St 84 (the Mountain West is overrated)

Wake Forest 60 vs Kentucky 90 (the Wildcat's youth hasn't been a problem so far)

North Carolina 76 at Miss St 74 (NIT)

Jacksonville 64 at Texas Tech 69 (NIT)

N Carolina St 52 at UAB 72 (NIT)

March 21, 2010

Gonzaga 65 vs Syracuse 87

Georgia Tech 66 vs Ohio St 75

Michigan St 85 vs Maryland 83

Missouri 59 vs West Virginia 68

Cornell 87 vs Wisconsin 69

Xavier 71 vs Pittsburgh 68 (another Big East team goes down)

Texas A&M 61 vs Purdue 63 (OT)

California 53 vs Duke 68

March 22, 2010

Nevada 83 at Rhode Island 85 (NIT)

Connecticut 63 at Virginia Tech 65 (NIT) (another Big East team goes down)

Kent St 58 at Illinois 75 (NIT)

Dayton 81 at Cincinnati 66 (NIT) (another Big East team is trounced at home - of the 13 Big East teams in post-season, only 2 are left. Is this enough evidence for the Northeast media to shut their mouths on how great they are?)

Morehead St 89 at Boston U 91 (OT) (CBI)

Princeton 74 at IUPUI 68 (2OT) (CBI)

Charleston 86 at VCU 93 (CBI)

Green Bay 62 at St Louis 68 (2OT) (CBI)

Appalachian St 80 at Marshall 72 (CIT)

Fairfield 55 at Creighton 73 (CIT)

Louisiana Tech 40 at Missouri St 69 (CIT)

Pacific 63 at Northern Colorado 59 (CIT)

March 23, 2010

Texas Tech 87 at Mississippi 90 (2OT) (NIT)

North Carolina 60 at UAB 55 (NIT)

March 24, 2010

Rhode Island 79 at Virginia Tech 72 (NIT)

Dayton 77 at Illinois 71 (NIT)

Boston U 75 at VCU 88 (CBI)

Princeton 59 at St Louis 69 (CBI)

Pacific at Appalachian St (CIT)

Creighton 61 at Missouri St 67 (CIT)

March 25, 2010

Butler 63 vs Syracuse 59 (the PAC 10 might be a better conference based on post-season performance. Boeheim will usually be outcoached and like I said before I have never seen a smart Orange team)

Washington 56 vs West Virginia 69 (only one Big East team left)

Xavier 96 vs Kansas St 101 (2OT)

Cornell 45 vs Kentucky 62

Pacific 64 at Appalachian St 56 (CIT)

March 26, 2010

Tennessee 76 vs Ohio St 73

St Marys 49 vs Baylor 72

Northern Iowa 52 vs Michigan St 59 (Lucas is out)

Purdue 57 vs Duke 70

March 27, 2010

Butler 63 vs Kansas St 56

West Virginia 73 vs Kentucky 66 (Huggins is among the best - by far the best coach in the Big East)

March 28, 2010

Tennessee 69 vs Michigan St 70 (Izzo might be the best) (as stated in the news, 12 of the Tournament teams have a graduation rate of under 40% and Tennessee (20%) and Kentucky were among them. Do you think the NCAA will do anything about it? NO! They don't care about academics - it's all about money.)

Bayler 71 vs Duke 78

March 29, 2010

St Louis 56 at VCU 68 (CBI)

March 30, 2010

Dayton 68 vs Mississippi 63 (NIT)

North Carolina 68 vs Rhode Island 67 (OT) (NIT)

Pacific 65 at Missouri St 78 (CIT Championship)

March 31, 2010

VCU 71 at St Louis 65 (CBI Championship)

April 1, 2010

North Carolina 68 vs Dayton 79 (NIT Championship)

April 3, 2010

Butler 52 vs Michigan St 50 (NCAA Final Four)

West Virginia 57 vs Duke 78 (NCAA Final Four) (This is glaring proof that the Big East is not the best Conference this year or any other year and that the stupid Eastern media will keep their mouths shut. Of the 8 Big East teams chosen for the NCAA field, only West Virginia made it to the Final 8 - that is a pitiful performance. Four Big East teams were eliminated in the first round losing to powerhouses Ohio U, Washington, California and Old Dominion. Syracuse lost to St Marys in the regional semifinals. Boeheim was voted National Coach of the Year - what a joke! And further, how tough and how great New York high school basketball players are - where were they?: the first team All-America team had 2 players from Illinois and the best player (Turner) was also from Illinois (of course none of them played at the University of Illinois).

April 5, 2010

Butler 59 vs Duke 61 (NCAA Championship) the Bulldogs played with grit and great defense and had a chance to win at the end. Watch out - the Bulldogs have all starters returning next year. And Coach K - well, he's Coach K. He won his fourth NCAA Championship.

 

My Record vs Vegas (2009-2010):

4/5/10 0-1 (0%)

NCAA Tournament: 42-60 (70%)

Season Total: 576-982 (59%)

 

NCAA Tournament Selection Committee:

The Committee did a fair job of team selections. Conference Championship winners like New Mexico St, San Diego St and Houston took away three at-large bids. One can make a case for Illinois (but the Illini lost a home game to Minnesota near the end of the season) because they had five wins vs Top 50 teams. Maybe both teams should have been in. There should have been more emphasis on performances at the end of the season. Florida lost 4 of their last 5 games, while Miss St lost 3 of their last 5 games and ended up playing in the SEC Conference Champioship game vs Kentucky that resulted in (OT). One can also make a case for Virginia Tech rather than Wake Forest. Virginia Tech finished tied for 4th in the ACC (10-6) and 23-8 overall, while Wake Forest finished 9-7 in the ACC and lost 5 of their last 6 games for their usual end of the season slump (which is inexplicable considering their talent) and 19-10 overall. Utah St should not have been selected because of a really weak non-conference schedule: at Utah (lost), at Northeastern (lost), St Mary's (at home and lost) and BYU (at home and won).

 

NCAA Tournament predictions:

This Tournament is wide open with only Kansas having a slight edge. Kentucky is too inexperienced, Duke doesn't have a superstar and doesn't play well away from home and Syracuse (Onuaku is questionable) and not a particularly smart team (when have they ever been?) I think West Virginia has a shot. They have one of the best coaches and one of the best players in the country.

 

My Current Top Ten Conference Performances: (these numbers are adjusted to current team ratings. Final)

 

Conference	Teams	Current Rating	Nonconference Schedule	Record vs My Nonconference Top 50	Comments
ACC	12	20.92	-5.64	26-25	down some from last year
BIG 12	12	19.59	-8.20	22-26	improved
BIG EAST	16	19.17	-5.74	23-30	about the same
BIG TEN	11	15.83	-2.68	20-25	improved
SEC	12	14.98	-1.93	17-28	improved
PAC TEN	10	10.71	0.93	8-26	this conference is awful
MTN WEST	9	8.89	-4.93	9-13	improved
MISS VALLY	10	7.18	-11.02	5-12	improved
ATL 10	14	7.14	1.34	18-38	improved
CONF USA	12	2.10	-6.63	2-27	Memphis is down

 

My Best Coaches:

1) Coach K (Duke) Always recruits class, smart kids that fit into his system.

2) Bill Self (Kansas) Great recruiter and strategist.

3) Tom Izzo (Michigan St)

4) Bob Huggins (West Virginia) Not the most popular coach, but this guy can coach and recruit.

5) Rick Barnes (Texas)

6) John Calipari (Kentucky) Interesting to see how this turns out.

7) Billy Donovan (Florida)

8) Mark Few (Gonzaga) Major teams hate to play the Zags.

9) Jay Wright (Villanova) Not a great recruiter but gets a lot from his players.

10) Roy Williams (North Carolina)

11) Sean Miller (Arizona) This young coach always fields tough teams.

12) Jamie Dixon (Pittsburgh) The Panthers are always up there no matter the talent.

13) Bo Ryan (Wisconsin) Great strategist and gets the most from his talent.

14) Bill Carmody (Northwestern) No coach gets more out of his players.

15) Brad Stevens (Butler) Took over for Todd Lickliter but the Bulldogs haven't missed a step.

16) Bob McKillop (Davidson) The Wildcats were just two points away from being a 2008 Final Four team.

17) Fran McCaffery (Siena)

18) Tubby Smith (Minnesota) Has turned the Gopher program around.

19) Tony Bennett (Virginia) Will make a big difference at Charlottesville.

20) Oliver Purnell (Clemson) Always has his team near the top of the ACC.

 

My Best Coaches by Conference

ACC - 7

Big Ten - 8

Big East - 5

Big 12 - 6

SEC - 7

PAC 10 - 3

 

October, 2010 (Ratings, Scores and Commentary)

 

 

Read analyses by college basketball expert Mike DeCourcy of the Sporting News.

Click the important links to review sites such as Kenneth Massey's computer ratings. See his comparisons of other ratings including Sagarin, etc. For a good review of Mid-Major teams, see Meyer's site.

Any comments? I look forward to your responses. My e-mail address is y22_hz_n@lakeland.ws

 

Back to Top

©Jim Lynch, 2006
Last revised: April 06, 2010.